Core CPI will probably show gains of 0.3 percent or 0.4 percent in the January-March period. |
Fukui may make remarks that seek to curtail the recent spike in yields, on the view that recent rises are too much. |
Growth will accelerate. The environment around the bond market toward the end of March will not be so good. |
I now doubt that recent political pressure can actually affect any policy action at the Bank of Japan, unless unexpected contingency risk shocks the Japanese economy. |
The chance for a policy change next week has now risen to close to 100 percent. |
Yesterday's quarterly survey by the Ministry of Finance supports our view that any improvement in business sentiment stalled in the March quarter but this was largely due to a reaction to accelerated growth in the previous quarter. |