He has time over time noted a single month of economic data is a poor guide to the future, |
However, a much larger drag seemed possible after the October surge, and a good portion of the rise will be offset by a gain in inventories in the quarter. |
I don't' think we've seen any sign here that there is an urgency to risk damaging the pace of the upturn. Why rush, why panic? |
I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker, |
I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker. |
I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker. At roughly $50, oil should be holding back GDP (gross domestic product) growth by a full percentage point in the year to come. Fortunately, we have more than a percentage point to give. |
I think it comes down to the mechanics of how folks were counted. |
I think we can do better, |
If demand stays strong and productivity growth slows considerably, this could be a year that could be seen as heading towards traditional overheating of the labor market, with big employment gains, |
If demand stays strong and productivity growth slows considerably, this could be a year that could be seen as heading towards traditional overheating of the labor market, with big employment gains. |
If gas prices are just holding steady and not increasing, and if incomes are rising, your gas bill is the same, and [consumer] demand can rebound. That's the most likely scenario here. |
If you can tell me where the next move in oil prices is going to be -- up to $60 a barrel or down to $20 -- I can tell you what the economy is going to do. |
If you look at labor demand, you should be getting a decent trend. It was only June data that fell below that trend. |
In some industries, there's no improvement and the economy is not going to help them. |
Iraq will be the story until it isn't any more. |