There are quite a few ways in which supplies could be disrupted, not just from Iran itself, while the accumulation of economic data and forecasts for the global economy over the past month or so points to global energy demand remaining strong. The rise has been speedy. |
There's a sense that Iran has heated up and if it's going to come to a head, it will be further out than May. |
There's still money flying into the commodities markets in general. I think the market is still bullish. |
There's unlikely to be a quick return of output, and the market is certainly pricing in all of these various geo-political threats. |