At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is. |
Certainly those auto incentives were helpful in giving us that growth in the fourth quarter. But we have to remember that even outside of autos, the consumers have really hung in there. I don't think it's entirely a fluke. I don't think it accounts for the ongoing strength of the consumer. |
Consider how much of a [spending] boom we had in the '90s. The bad news is that it will take a long while to work through that. We're looking at the first quarter of next year before we see convincing evidence [of a recovery]. |
Firms are still pretty cautious, given the experience of the past couple of years. But if firms are going to maintain market share, they will have to be competitive in terms of the goods they offer. |
Firms in the past year have continued to invest in equipment and technology to improve productivity. And with good reason -- the cost of capital is below the cost of labor. |
From the Fed's point of view we've had head-fakes before -- I think they want to see a more stable environment for financial markets before they call it a day. I don't expect that's going to happen overnight. We will see a sustainable slowdown, but it may not happen right away. |
From the Fed's point of view, we've had head-fakes before. I don't expect that's going to happen. We will see a sustainable slowdown, but it may not happen right away, which could push the Fed later on to raise short-term rates. |
He grabbed onto the door handle, ran alongside of the truck, and I guess he lost his balance and fell. |
He's instantly recognizable in financial circles and has international stature. |
I don't think anyone has seen this happen so quickly. I don't think Alan Greenspan has seen it happen so quickly. So he's taking out an insurance policy for himself. My best guess is that they (The Fed) are running scared. At this point we've seen such pronounced weakness across all areas of the economy that I think they're fearful this downturn is going to be very different than any in the past. |
I don't think they needed an excuse to sit on their hands, and clearly they're going to do that. They may not even move until [their] August [meeting] at the earliest. They have all the flexibility they need, given the weakness of the labor market, and this [productivity report] gives them even more so. |
I don't think we've seen anything that will change the Fed's mind. The Fed has said all along it expects to see a stronger economy. But, even as the economy strengthens, deflation risks are still there; there's still a case to be made for a 50-basis-point cut. |
I find it strange that we had one of the biggest declines in employment in almost two years and no one noticed, and I'm sure they're thinking the same way over there at the Fed. |
I suspect they will not have a neutral bias; they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year. |
I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years. |