I do not think the ministry will actually interfere in he markets. But other central banks such as Korea's may do so, helping the dollar rebound. |
Investors will become focused on the interest-rate differential story this week. Strong U.S. economic figures will reinforce the view the Fed will keep raising rates, giving a boost to the dollar. |
Japanese investors are still looking for higher yields overseas. That's weighing on the yen. |
Some investors will use strong consumer confidence data as a reason to buy the dollar. The figures will likely show the U.S. economy is still robust enough for the Fed to keeping rates next year. |
Some investors will use strong consumer confidence data as an reason to buy the dollar. Any number above 100 is likely be dollar supportive. |
Strong figures will boost expectations of higher growth in consumer spending in the U.S.. That will heighten expectations of at least two more rate hikes from the Fed, supporting the dollar. |
Strong jobs data will certainly further raise expectations for Fed rate hikes in March and the months after that. The U.S. economy still seems robust and the dollar's upward trend is likely to continue. |
Strong jobs data will certainly further raise expectations for Fed rate hikes in March and the months after. The U.S. economy still seems robust and the dollar's upward trend is likely to continue. |
Strong jobs figures will certainly heighten expectations for three more Fed rate hikes. The U.S. economy is still firm enough for the dollar to remain powerful. |
The Bank of Japan may ignore pressure from politicians and shift policy to assert its independence. Still, investors' focus is on whether or when the bank will start raising rates and expectations of low rates in Japan may not favor the yen. |
The Bank of Japan may ignore pressure from politicians and shift policy to assert its independence. The yen may see brief buying if the BOJ changes policy today, but it won't last long. The bias is for a weaker yen. |
The BOJ may hold rates near zero for more than six months even after the end of its current policy. The yen may see brief buying if the BOJ changes policy today but it won't last long. The bias is for a weaker yen. |
The dollar remains firm, as the absolute U.S. interest- rate advantage still continues to exist. Rates hikes by the BOJ are a long way off. |
The market focus is surely on the interest-rate differentials between the U.S. and other major economies, including Japan. The Bank of Japan won't raise its interest rate any time soon, so the yen will remain the most bearish for the foreseeable future, while the dollar will be the most bullish. |
With the huge amount of money that Japanese sent abroad, repatriation flows could have a major effect on the dollar-yen through March. |