The more stable picture in the total index and the lessening pace of decline in orders would fit with the idea of a 25-basis-point (0.25 percent) reduction on May 15 instead of the more aggressive 50-basis-point (0.5 percent) (cuts) of recent months. |
The report will not comfort the Fed, despite the good headline data, ... The news further back in the pipeline was not good. |
The soap opera will continue. I wouldn't take them off stage altogether as some people are doing. |
There's definitely that possibility, although one of the things the Fed wants to get away from is slavishly bowing to that lather, ... I'm still expecting a quarter point cut. There's a concern by some members of the Fed that they risk over stimulating the economy. And if you keep making half-point cuts, you'll run out of bullets pretty quickly. |
These numbers are as close to perfect as you can get from a Fed point of view. |
They decided they were going to go and get some revenge. |
Things obviously got away from them. But by acting in such dramatic fashion, the Fed sent a loud signal to participants in both the financial and the business sectors that the Fed will fight the threat of recession as vigorously as it fought the threat of inflation. |
This plunge could reflect shock and could rebound if consumers keep buying cars and visiting malls as much as anecdotes indicate they have in recent weeks. |
This report may modestly lower third-quarter real GDP estimates, |
This report may modestly lower third-quarter real GDP estimates. |
We are in the second half of the season, and he needs a bit more speed. |
We have often noted the Fed tries to choose a policy action that minimizes the consequences of a mistake. Which would have the least negative consequences today: easing too much and setting off an excessively strong rebound or easing too little and allowing the economy to slip back into recession? We would vote for the former. |
We seriously doubt this report will dissuade the Fed from a 50-basis-point hike today. But if the May 'core' report is also benign and May retail sales are only moderate, that could cause the Fed to take a pass at the June 28 meeting. |
We would not argue the gradual year-to-year increase in unit labor costs is not of concern at the Fed, but are convinced that none of today's data will impact their decision [at their next meeting] on Oct. 5, |
We would not argue the gradual year-to-year increase in unit labor costs is not of concern at the Fed, but are convinced that none of today's data will impact their decision [at their next meeting] on Oct. 5. |