If housing continues to cool, some weakening will occur in the economy. |
If there is an inflation threat building, and the Fed doesn't act and inflation starts picking up, instead of (a) 50 basis points [increase] it's 250 basis points. |
In our forecast, we see consumer spending slowing a little bit in the fourth quarter to 3.1 percent from 3.8 percent for the same period last year, ... The rationale is that as the housing market slows , there'll be a cooling effect in the home wealth effect and the fluctuating energy prices will also have some drag on spending in the months ahead. |
In the whole post-war rebound story, the first part has come through -- we've clearly seen a bounce in consumer confidence. The next key step is business activity measures improving, including employment indicators. Hopefully we will see weekly jobless claims coming down soon -- in the next three-to-four weeks. |
Inflation is obviously a little bit higher than expected. Food and apparel were up. This is not going to stand in the way of further Fed easing. |
It could be great for six months for a worker, and then he loses his job. |
It shows that underlying inflation is still tame and only slowly edging up. That means the Fed can take its time hiking rates. The only question is whether it keeps moving at every meeting or takes a break now and then. |
It underscores how much profits have been squeezed and helps explain why business investment is weakening as much as it is in the second quarter, |
It underscores how much profits have been squeezed and helps explain why business investment is weakening as much as it is in the second quarter. |
It was weaker than expected, but it wasn't a dramatic surprise. It was already pretty clear that sentiment came off in January. |
It's a reflection of strong U.S. demand. Growth in Europe and Japan is certainly going to help, but until domestic demand slows, we're not going to see a big turnaround in the trade deficit. |
It's old news and pretty inconsequential changes. |
People have seen weakening in goods prices and have been pointing to deflation. This tells us we're not going there. |
Seventy percent of our Mazda customers spend an enormous amount of time on the Internet prior to coming to the dealership, |
Some of the pickup reflects mix shifts, with payroll growth in above-average-wage sectors accelerating relative to growth in below-average-wage sectors. That said, some legitimate pickup in wage gains is probably credible given the low unemployment rate and the energy-led rise in inflation expectations recently. |