490 ordspråk av Anthony Chan

Anthony Chan

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Futures are down this morning, feeling the pressure of Texas Instruments' weak forecast. Now it is clear that growth is certainly going to slow. The question is, by how much?

Given our forecast, we do not expect that this statistical release will have much impact on the policy debate when the Fed meets,

Given that we import more than 50 percent of our oil consumption from abroad, it is clear that as these prices rise, we are essentially transferring net wealth from U.S. consumers to oil producers that are mostly located overseas.

Given the signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector, that won't bring the economy to its knees, but it will ensure that this will be a moderate rather than robust recovery.

Given the strong fervor for doing something quickly to help the economy, given that [Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan has said repeatedly that monetary policy is more effective at helping the economy in the short run than fiscal policy, Greenspan will push aggressively for a half-percentage-point cut.

Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.

Greenspan has to give reassurance that, if things deteriorate, the Fed is willing to act. But the underlying structure of the economy seems pretty good.

He can't sound bullish and he can't sound bearish, ... He has walk a very fine line to justify maintaining this measured status quo.

He not only was articulate in his views, but justified his views without making financial markets balk. He was impressive, maybe not as impressive as Greenspan, but Greenspan had 18 years to practice.

He's saying so far there is sufficient flexibility that we can tolerate a higher deficit than we could 10 years ago. He didn't say ignore it.

Higher mortgage rates are having the expected impact on the housing market.

History would suggest that getting [into equity markets] a bit early is often not too costly, since the lion's share of the negative performance is generated during the first third of a recession.

I believe that it is safe to say that this report understates the true strength of current labor market conditions,

I believe that it is safe to say that this report understates the true strength of current labor market conditions.

I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.

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