24 ordspråk av Anthony Karydakis

Anthony Karydakis

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[The index] raises the issue of whether the consumer, which up until now had been hanging in there pretty well, is starting to break up, and I think that is going to prove a critical issue in the next several months.

A reasonable interpretation is they're going to go again in May unless the ( economic) numbers make a compelling case against.

All these things worked together to cause the market turnaround. There was a sense that the selling had been way, way overdone beyond any rationale. The economy is still weak and the Fed is going to ease.

Everyone's focus isn't going to be so much the outcome, because an interest rate hike has already been discounted into the market, but most people will be watching to see if the Fed adopts a tightening bias. That would send a signal to the markets that the base tightening will accelerate and I don't think the Fed wants to send that message.

For the past few months, core C.P.I. has been surprisingly well behaved. You would be very hard-pressed to find such a long stretch of benign numbers.

Hardly a day goes by without seeing fairly credible anecdotal reports about price increases in various industries. This is the first time in a very large number of years they are confronted with mounting inflation pressures.

Housing will act as a headwind to consumer spending. But will it be devastating? No.

I don't think we should jump the gun and start arguing about the risk of deflation yet. I think it is important to realize that PPI in particular is a lot more volatile than the CPI (consumer price index) of the inflation measures and is a lot more prone to producing these surprises.

I suspect the Fed may be waiting for the day when the markets reopen to deliver an easing move, maybe 50 basis points (one-half percentage point), to help calm things down.

It's a pretty straightforward case of weak equities helping bonds. But there's still the feeling that we're running up against some kind of a brick wall, and that's why prices were unable to push a whole lot higher.

The data shows an undiminished appetite on the part of foreigners for U.S. securities, which means there's still a healthy demand for U.S. dollars that more than offsets the trade deficit.

The data were the latest of several recent reports, including ones on jobless claims and consumer confidence earlier this week, that told us that the economy is not out of the woods yet.

The environment in the bond market is not particularly calm right now. No one wants to catch a falling knife here. People will be hesitant to step in ahead of the number and try to be heroes.

The Fed cannot relax. If you look at the various measures on how much slack is left in the economy, you see less and less.

The key is whether consumers' income will be able to keep up, and that looks encouraging so far.

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