I think this can sustain for the next day or two, at least until we get to all the earning and economic news in the second half of the week, ... Right now, the path of least resistance is still to the upside. |
I think this market can hold on to this rally and start trending higher. |
I think we got oversold, not on negative news, but on fear that we'd gotten ahead of ourselves and that things can't hold up in the fourth quarter, |
I think we need to get through the options expiration tomorrow, |
I think we'll see the stock market trying to price that (rate cuts) in the second quarter. |
I think we'll start getting investors into the marketplace later in the first quarter, |
I think we're clearly in summer vacation mode, so we're going to have low volumes -- which has a strange effect on equity valuations and tends to exaggerate moves, |
I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market. |
I think you'll see quiet trade tomorrow, |
I would take oil as a front-burner issue, ... Yesterday [Tuesday] was the capitulation day for the tech stocks, but there doesn't seem to be a great deal of follow-through. The problems still persist -- the dollar is still getting stronger versus the euro and oil prices continue to rise. |
I'm not sure how judicious it is, but the market looks like it will move energy to the side stage, while rate hikes and the Federal Open Market Committee again take center stage. |
I'm thinking the Fed will leave the rates unchanged, ... We've ramped up pretty higher into this meeting and my concern is the psychological letdown if the rhetoric remains strong. |
If Bush does really well tonight, that's good for the market, |
If the high levels of employment aren't kept up with the high levels of productivity gains that we have been making, (the Fed) will probably need to do something pro-active and that would probably mean 25 basis points now and then something in the first quarter of next year. |
If the payrolls number is anywhere near in line with estimates, we're not going to see much of a stock reaction. |