422 ordspråk av Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
We seem to go from worries about the economy slowing down to appreciating that the economy remains strong and can bounce back from slower fourth-quarter GDP growth.
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We think 3.5 percent is a good point for the Fed to take a break to measure the economy and the impact of its rate hikes. If the economy does appear to be picking up, they could start raising again.
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We weathered a near-term storm of the recent tech earnings well. The market has a lot of consolidating to do, and there isn't a catalyst for serious upside at the moment. Only quality earnings amongst all sectors will help us.
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We're all going to be looking for the employment rate and looking for that corroboration of this economy slowing, but the picture is ultimately confusing, ... You've got earnings slowing to the point where it's certainly pinpointing a recession and you've got Mr. Greenspan [Fed chairman] trusting some indicators and not trusting other indicators.
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We're all going to be looking for the employment rate and looking for that corroboration of this economy slowing, but the picture is ultimately confusing. You've got earnings slowing to the point where it's certainly pinpointing a recession and you've got Mr. Greenspan [Fed chairman] trusting some indicators and not trusting other indicators.
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We're not at the beginning of a decline. We don't believe you're about to enter another horrendous down phase in the market measured by the Nasdaq. We think there are some tough times ahead over the next one to three months. But if you take a longer view of that, many of these companies in the Nasdaq big cap are starting to come down to levels that look fairly attractive on a growth basis.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.
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We're supported by a rebounding economy after a weaker fourth quarter, and recently lower oil prices. But that's countered by concerns about slower earnings growth and higher inflation.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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We've been stuck in an extremely narrow band for the last few weeks, and this could break us out.
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We've had so many weeks now of down that it's kind of hard to believe we could have an up day or an up week for the market, but the technician in me is saying this is nothing more than a technical rally.
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What I like about today is that all of the main S&P sectors are higher, which shows broad strength for the market. And the consumer confidence number suggests optimism about the start of 2005.
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What will frame investor decision-making in August is going to be totally Fed-driven, ... We've gotten the anecdotal comments from Mr. Greenspan that we can achieve a slower growth landing but we now have to see that anecdotal evidence turn into fact.
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What will frame investor decision-making in August is going to be totally Fed-driven. We've gotten the anecdotal comments from Mr. Greenspan that we can achieve a slower growth landing but we now have to see that anecdotal evidence turn into fact.
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What you are seeing is the likelihood that interest rates will not go higher next week, making it easier to give these big cap growth stocks high valuations.
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