46 ordspråk av Bill Hornbarger

Bill Hornbarger

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The big thing on everybody's mind is oil prices.

The data was strong, but people expected it. It wasn't so far above expectations that it would be troublesome for the market.

The fact that oil is so strong is adding fuel to the fire.

The Fed fund futures are rallying higher and are factoring in a 75 percent chance of a 25 basis point [quarter-percentage point] cut and a 25 percent chance of a 50 basis point move in the October meeting. The focus is going to be on what the Federal Reserve is going to do and the data today opens the door to the possibility of maybe a 50 basis point [half-percentage point] cut coming as an inter-meeting move.

The market is trading on fear. People view a 25 basis point (a quarter percentage point) hike in February followed by another 25 in March as fact. There's fear now of more than that.

The market was getting extended. It's natural that it would stop to take a breather.

The question is not whether they are going to do it, but when they are going to cut and how much. I think there's a pretty good chance you'll see 25-basis points on Tuesday.

There's just not enough going on here in our markets.

They're going to be borrowing more money at the shorter part of the yield curve. Is that going to push short-term rates higher? It's pretty fair to say that's going to happen.

They've been moving in this direction for a couple of years, reducing the size and frequency of 30-year auctions. The big surprise is the timing, not the act itself. It happens in front of a couple of years where it looks like we'll be running deficits.

We still think it will help Treasury bonds.

We're of the opinion the economy is slowing down, just not fast enough. The market has built in a worst case scenario.

What the market is saying is that implicit in what he's talking about is a suggestion that we are going to see higher rates.

With rates backed up, a lot more people see value in bonds.

You're going to have this global competition for yields and our yields are going to be a bit more attractive. It's going to bring in some buying and it should also help the dollar relative to the euro,

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