[The] Democrats are still the minority party in Florida, and their candidate is going to have a little more to climb in the fall. |
Any ballot measure can lose if there is a well-financed campaign against it. In general, it is easier to convince voters to vote no than yes. Nothing is ever a slam dunk. |
Basically, Crist and Davis are nominal front-runners. Going in, they are going to be the favorites. |
Every smoking referendum I've ever polled has passed and I don't think Nevada is any different. What's unique about Nevada is that there is controversy in having two competing smoking initiatives. |
Fortunately for the president, it's the summer of '05. The critical time will be July of next year. They've got about a year to get the ball up the field a little bit. What that is, I don't know, but I suspect that involves stability, more local control, and starting to pull the troops out because they can, not because it's necessary for the US midterms. |
He can rally the faithful a little bit, but I don't know that he'll rally the middle ground people. People want to stand behind their country and government when they can, but I think they're just looking for something positive out of Iraq, and they're not getting it from the media. |
I can't think of any Republican (in Florida) that got less than 30 percent. |
I'm not convinced this race is about what a horrible candidate Harris is, as much as it is about how strong Nelson is. Short of Gov. Jeb Bush, I don't think there's a Republican out there who could beat him. |
Nevada was never Carter country back in the 1970s, and I just don't think Jack Carter has much of a chance, although you never completely dismiss anyone. Absent any fiasco by Ensign, Carter is going to have a tough time. |
Nothing's really changed in the big picture since we started tracking these races a year ago. Gibbons is still by far the strongest Republican, and he still beats all the Democrats. |
She isn't getting any kind of crossover Democrat support. |
The issue of hurricanes has never registered in past polls, and it has suddenly popped out at No. 2. That's obviously a hot issue that politicians in the state are going to have to deal with. |
The overall leads and sizes of the leads haven't changed all that much, which tells me that, other than real-interested, more-tuned-in voters, the large majority of voters haven't paid all that much attention. |
There really is a legitimate up-for-grabs nature to the race. In neither case can you say that [Crist and Davis are] solid front-runners. |
There seems to be a lot of mixed feelings on the issue. Voters seem to be split into three different camps on the big picture question, and a good chunk didn't know if they fell into any of them. |