48 ordspråk av Brian Bethune

Brian Bethune

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Activity in the manufacturing sector picked up early in the second quarter, in line with strong underlying fundamentals in the economy and stronger overseas demand. We can look forward to solid overall output growth in the second quarter of 2006.

Business investment is going to be one of the principal drivers of growth in 2006. The consumer will still be there ... (but) certainly won't be as ebullient as the last four years.

Consumption spending will continue to plod ahead in the second quarter.

Core producer price inflation generally has been behaving quite well. We think there's going to be some modest upward pressure as energy prices feed through the system, but it's not going to be a persistent or lengthy problem.

Demand for capital goods in overseas markets is expected to remain firm in the months ahead as cyclical recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum.

Demand is strong enough for companies to raise prices. This will keep the Fed's bias toward higher rates intact through the second quarter of 2006.

Existing sales peaked nationally back in September and have been coming down. The Northeast is following that pattern.

Further gains in employment combined with better levels for consumer confidence overall are setting the stage for very solid consumption gains in the first quarter of 2006.

Gains in employment and the stock market continue to support confidence. Household income is expected to grow at rates that will sustain growth in consumer spending.

Generally speaking, when it is over 75 percent of GDP, then the yellow flag goes out. I would say 95 percent of GDP and over is definitely a red flag.

Generally speaking, when it is over 75% of GDP, then the yellow flag goes out. I would say 95% of GDP and over is definitely a red flag.

If housing and stock prices go down, people will respond by increasing the flow of savings. If they have to save more to meet retirement objectives, then they'll have to cut down on consumption.

In terms of economic growth, the fundamentals are clearly on the side of the U.S.. We don't think there's going to be a lot of additional momentum, but even if (the dollar) treads water, it's still going to be an attractive investment.

Manufacturing is gaining strength heading into the second quarter. We have a level of capacity use that justifies more business investment.

Maybe we should all be praying for a warm winter because that might ease the pain.

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