I think this is another correction within an ongoing bull market, rather than something more substantial. |
I think we're going at least up to the old highs by the middle of September. I think this is still basically a big-cap, blue chip market. |
I've attached little or no significance to blue and red stocks. There is this sort of popular sense that Republicans are good for business and Democrats are bad, but I think that's a colossal mistake, because it makes you think about the wrong sort of stuff. |
In fact, if you wanted to be sort of perverse about it, the last thing I'd want to see would be fantastic earnings. |
It doesn't matter. Earnings could be doing anything. |
It seems the stock market is more tuned to the bond market now than it has been in the past several months. As soon as we got oriented towards the bond market, all this economic data increased in significance. |
It's just a matter of time until we cross 5,000. |
It's pretty mushy out there, ... But it's not a bad showing after yesterday's (Monday's) drubbing. |
It's pretty mushy out there. But it's not a bad showing after yesterday's (Monday's) drubbing. |
no longer believes that financial conditions are favorable enough to support a continued expansion in p/e ratios. |
Sentiment is pretty negative, |
The earnings story is good and is likely to remain very good, and the economic conditions are likely to remain supportive. It's certainly not going to go straight up beyond this period, but I think we're about two-thirds of the way through this correction. |
The particular bullish case for the blue chips here is that they've really had a correction over the last month or so, ... I look for the blue chips to catch up with the rest of the market and make new highs later this month. |
The particular bullish case for the blue chips here is that they've really had a correction over the last month or so. I look for the blue chips to catch up with the rest of the market and make new highs later this month. |
The trees can go pretty high instead of going to the sky, ... We could easily do another six months of bull market if conditions don't become too excessive and the Fed doesn't become too tight. The issue is how rapid they tighten. If they start doing a quarter-point every six weeks, that's fast. If it's a quarter-point and then nothing for six months that's fine. We can live with that. |