It may be just a matter of time before the public's inflation expectations start to rise. Commodity prices are soaring. |
It may come down to 59.5. This reading would not indicate a softer economy. |
It suggests that the industrial production setback reported for June is unlikely to last and that production geared up the very next month. |
It's going to be volatile. The odds for a rate hike in June will go back and forth for the next couple of months. |
It's not like the deficits back in the Reagan years because the economy is much larger now, so theoretically we can handle this amount of debt. |
Manufacturing production in the entire country is running flat-out at the moment. |
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher. |
Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here. |
That leads to expectations that the Fed is still going with its series of rate hikes. |
The curve should be flattening if the Fed is assumed to be still tightening. |
The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter, |
The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter. |
The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown. |
The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent. |
The Fed is still going to be on guard in terms of monitoring inflationary pressures, but this has to be good news today. |