It's nice to know that the Fed is taking (exotic home loans) seriously. It looks like (Greenspan's) trying ... to squeeze out the speculative element in housing; they don't want a repeat of the stock bubble. |
It's the same tone that he took in his testimony two weeks ago. |
Like everyone else, we expect a quarter-point hike in fed funds today to 4.75 percent -- we also expect the statement to be softened. |
Lower energy prices have brought a sense of relief to consumers. |
One reason the 10-year note yield has risen so much this week is that investors are worried that the end of the carry trade -- a trade that involves borrowing at very low rates in Japan and investing at higher rates abroad -- will end any day now. |
So far, the refunding has been a mixed bag. The three-year saw little foreign interest and had a low bid-to-cover, but the 10-year went a little better yesterday. |
The decline helps affirm cooling in the housing sector and is consistent with other broad-based data we have seen. |
The job market was lousy, now it's been upgraded to good, |
The job market was lousy, now it's been upgraded to good. |
The yield curve is a really powerful indicator. It always has been. The shape of the curve still matters. |
There is a good chance in the second half of next year, we see growth slow down fairly dramatically. |
There is no sign of an immediate pass through of energy to core prices, but consumers spent with abandon considering their lack of confidence in the continued health of the economy. That is likely to bolster the Fed's fear of future inflation and reinvigorate their will to raise rates. |
There is no sign of an immediate pass-through of energy to core prices, but consumers spent with abandon considering their lack of confidence. That is likely to bolster the Fed's fear of future inflation and reinvigorate their will to raise rates. |
There's no question we're in a new range [for yields,] |
These are abysmal numbers, suggesting a deeply pessimistic consumer in the first half of September. |