A significant number of Casey supporters still do not know that Casey is opposed to abortion. There are a significant number of pro-choice voters whose entire opinion swings on that one issue, and, unlike other single-issue voters, they will use their vote on just that one issue, even if it hurts the candidate they are otherwise philosophically attuned with. |
At the start of the election year, to have the governor still be up (by) double digits after all of the hoopla about Swann, I think is significant. But of course, the race is just beginning, so we have a long way to go. |
For a governor who signed the despised legislative pay raise and saw his plan to use gambling money to lower property taxes go down in flames, Ed Rendell ought to be called Teflon Ed. |
His polls have definitely weakened because, one, he had signed the legislative pay-raise bill last year, which was highly unpopular; and, two, he failed to deliver on his promise to lower property taxes. |
I wouldn't be surprised if as many as 25 percent of New Jersey voters said they are supporting Kean because of his father's record, or because they like his father. |
I'm sure that was among the factors that changed the margin in this. |
If there were a third-party candidate on the ballot who is pro-choice, that candidate could draw heavily from Casey backers among liberal Democrats, enough to make it a close race. |
If voters are in a Florio anti-tax mood, his approval rating will suffer. If he's able to convince them that tax increases are necessary to maintain state services they want, then his approval rating, while not going up sharply, should not be too badly damaged. |
It's a marvelously subtle attack. |
Most people decided that the government, including the Legislature ... should just stay out of the matter. |
Nelson's numbers are getting stronger, but about a third of the voters still say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. |
Sen. Menendez has a 6-point lead in his race for re-election mainly because New Jersey is a Democratic state more fed up with the Bush administration and the war in Iraq than it is with high taxes and the budget crisis at home. |
The bottom line is that even when things are equal in New Jersey, the Democrats win. |
There are people who no longer feel he'd be different. |
We're all out there in August beating the bushes, and the voters are still at the beach. |