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Colen Garrow

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Another issue likely to resurface is the matter of 'a more competitive exchange rate', deciphered as code for the rand to weaken. Moral suasion such as this may be good for export-biased manufacturers, but will hardly be considered good for observers of inflation, or long-term interest rate markets.

Apart from placing upward pressure on the yields in these markets, short-term rates may also respond, higher.

Despite the odd shortcoming, this Budget is on balance good. It entrenches South Africa's good fiscal record.

Fiscal relief may be the ammunition necessary to drive consumption expenditure but with it not being accompanied by aggressive monetary relief, growth in household consumption expenditure is showing signs of consolidation.

From this perspective, it is somewhat disappointing that corporate tax remains unchanged at 29% and that STC also remains unchanged at 12.5%.

In short, more South Africans employed suggests more disposable income and more money being spent on retail goods.

In such instances, funds held offshore may potentially exceed the R750 000 ceiling, which limits the amount of funds which may be taken offshore via the vehicle of private foreign currency accounts. The situation as it is, is thus inequitable and will have to be addressed by government at some stage.

Interestingly, the forecast for December may be little changed from the previous month, around 3.7%, bringing the average for 2005 to less than 4.0%, a highly respectable figure.

It would appear that with revenue collection exceeding budget this fiscal year, additional tax relief may be forthcoming when Finance Minister Trevor Manuel unveils the national Budget for 2006/2007 on 15th February. Welfare and dependency grants, personal income tax relief, and cuts in those costs which would make housing more affordable for middle and low income earners are likely to buoy consumption expenditure, and manufacturing.

It's a modest number but it could be better were it not for the rand. The sector is growing on strength of local demand and it does look as though global manufacturing is pulling itself out of a slump - but we are not out of the doldrums yet.

It's likely to be a pro-growth budget in line with the government's target of reaching annual GDP growth of 6% by 2010.

Manufacturing is not the only supply sector battling a strong currency. Mining is being crippled by a similar problem.

Manufacturing will be under pressure because of currency strength, it will hold the sector back and put the handbrake on keeping growth from reaching its potential level.

Manufacturing will be under pressure because of currency strength. It will hold the sector back and (keep) growth from reaching its potential level.

Persistent currency strength has had a detrimental impact on export-based activities in the manufacturing sector, making similar imported goods more competitive.

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