24 ordspråk av Daniel Katzive

Daniel Katzive

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Data has been strong enough heading into year-end to prevent market participants from making strong conclusions on the likely timing of the end of the Fed's tightening cycle, and in this environment the dollar is likely to remain well-supported for now.

Friday's solid US payrolls headlines and strength in average earnings growth have boosted Fed tightening expectations further.

Further evidence of stability in the housing market and solid retail activity could prompt a rethink of MPC easing risk now priced in, allowing the euro to retreat sharply against the pound.

I think the break of the big level last week ... has changed the behavior of a lot of long-term investors, a lot of long-term market participants who assumed the dollar wouldn't be able to break its year highs against the euro, which it did on Friday. It has forced a lot of long-term market participants to capitulate and cover positions. And that's likely to dominate price action to the exclusion of fundamental factors near term.

I think this is a sign that the market remains disproportionately sensitive to downside surprises in U.S. data as opposed to the upside, given how much (Fed rate hikes) is already priced in.

If US data begins to slow markedly in the coming weeks, as our US economics team suspects, the dollar is likely come under renewed pressure.

It adds near-term upside risk for the dollar.

It's got to be the yen. That is the currency with the lowest yield and borrowers can be comfortable that the BOJ is not going to significantly boost their funding costs over the course of the year.

Michigan was a touch below consensus. The dollar may pull back a little, especially against interest-rate-sensitive currencies.

Moreover, with a fair amount of Fed tightening now priced in, the US currency remains more vulnerable to downside surprises than upside surprises.

Oil prices have continued to move higher and equities have apparently taken it badly.

Short term, it is good to buy the currency on dips.

The better tone in global equity markets as crude prices moderate a bit has helped ease risk aversion concerns, to the dollar's benefit.

The data suggests the big momentum positions which had mirrored carry trades have now been cut back to much more neutral levels, which should provide a good backdrop for carry trade rebuilding in the new year.

The dollar is continuing to respond to the new shift in tone from the FOMC yesterday, and that has continued to work through, not only on the currency market but also on the interest rate and equity markets.

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