13 ordspråk av David Berson

David Berson

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At some point in the future, California probably will have another big housing recession. It is possible at that point that prices will fall meaningfully, as in the past they have done. That is clearly a negative for people who own homes. But for those who don't own homes, that will . . . give them a pretty good chance to buy in the next up-cycle.

Fortunately, continued job and income growth and the overall economy growth will help to offset the fall in housing activity that otherwise would occur.

I was surprised that the sales numbers went up, even with the good weather. It doesn't change our view that the general trend in housing activity is downward.

In some cases, they probably have. Yet in another situation, the consumer will use the same loan to really benefit their situation. It's never an easy call as to what is going to work and what is not.

In some parts of the country, affordability has fallen to levels we have not seen in 20 years.

It's possible the condo market could see a very big drop.

The bulk of the decline in home sales this year will come from investors leaving the housing market. If home price gains have peaked, as we expect, and financing is more expensive, investors are going to find someplace else to put their money.

There's no sign that investor demand has softened at all. The things that would have caused a slower housing market, such as higher mortgage rates, simply aren't present, and we're now almost halfway through the year.

We can't find a period when the investor share of home sales has been higher than in the last year. In the fourth quarter, it looked like investors were starting to step back.

We don't have enough data to know how big a problem this will be.

We expect housing activity to drop about 8 percent this year -- it's primarily because of the investors' slowing purchases.

We obviously track the mortgage activity and understand that overall share, but we don't focus on how many homes are being purchased by investors without a mortgage. That could be a more interesting part of the housing picture.

We'll still be doing a lot of this content. It just won't be in a stand-alone show.

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