186 ordspråk av David Lereah

David Lereah

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The housing sector has likely passed its peak. The boom is winding down. I expect continued softening in housing if rates remain at these levels or go higher.

The interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has dropped one-and-a quarter percentage points in the last year -- that means there are about 300,000 additional households who can afford to buy a home today that couldn't qualify for a loan a year ago. Although the slowing economy is causing a little drag on the market, consumers who are confident about their own future are going ahead with big-ticket purchases like homes and cars.

The level of existing-home sales in July was the third highest on record. This is a big number any way you slice it, and housing is continuing to stimulate the overall economy.

The markets still are very healthy and the fundamentals are still there. But there certainly has been a slowing in the housing market, like air coming out of a balloon.

The nearby regions picked up a great deal of activity very quickly.

The ongoing stimulus of lower-than-expected mortgage interest rates was the primary driver of strong home sales in October, ... Of course all of the other market fundamentals remain sound, so we should only see a modest decline from record home sales this year if mortgage interest rates gradually rise.

The present level of home sales activity is considerably above last year's record, and the new benchmark we'll set in 2004 is a significant contributor to overall U.S. economic growth.

The reason interest rates are higher is that we are in a growing economy.

The slowdown amounts to a tapping of the brakes on a hot market.

The underlying fundamentals of the housing market are solid and sales will stay historically strong, but they will trend modestly down from current peaks. Masked by the data are early signs that housing is starting to wind down from a boom and will transition into an expansion - in other words, a soft landing.

There are still lean inventories in a lot of the hot markets and that's why I have a lot of confidence that these balloons won't burst. They're balloons, not bubbles.

There is a risk that investor shares could really come down significantly in some of our very hot markets.

There is no sign of a downturn, ... Home sales will continue at historically high levels, and 2005 is expected to be the second-best year on record for the housing market.

There seems to be some air coming out of some of these balloons.

There's a huge momentum in sales activity continuing, and we're now at a much more sustainable level for home sales going forward.

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