47 ordspråk av David Seiders

David Seiders

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The weather basically gave the builders an opportunity to move things forward. No one changed their plans. But I'll probably change my forecasts for the next two months lower, even if I keep the first quarter forecast at pretty much the same level.

There is now accumulating evidence that the housing market peaked somewhere in the third quarter. Our survey of builder confidence, which came out yesterday, was down a lot. . . . It was the biggest drop since the first survey after 9/11.

There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.

This has been an incredibly resilient U.S. economy, and housing has been a significant piece of that. The hurricanes provided a very significant risk, but we have seemed to have come through that. Despite the risks that might be present in the near future, I'll throw my cards into this economy simply because of how it's performed.

This is definitely a good sign that the housing market is stabilizing.

This is obviously exuberant behavior by builders.

We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.

We can't hold at the pace we had last year. It's not going to be the end of the world -- it's going to be a simmering down to a very healthy pace.

We had unusually bad weather in many parts of the country in December, and the conditions in January were extraordinarily warm.

We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.

We're certainly seeing a record rate of return in real terms (after factoring out inflation), and there has been very little sign of deceleration. But it is probably inevitable that some of this will slow down.

We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.

We've been in a period when a lot of equity has been dropped in our laps, and it has been fairly easy to get to that equity in tax favorable ways. In these circumstances, savings will fall given the strong consumer attitude in America.

When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.

When you start to see cancellations, you really get worried.

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