105 ordspråk av Diane Swonk

Diane Swonk

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(Bush) has got to be even more careful today. He has burned through a lot of political capital. He's got to put someone in who is going to be a slam dunk.

[The conference takes Fed staff and academics] out of their ivory tower ... It's the unique mix of those individuals — that's the beauty of it.

A limited statement would be more productive because the Fed is trying to deal with psychological issues. They want the focus to be on their action, not their words.

After the fireworks we've seen coming out of Washington on Friday and Monday, I think the Fed would like to be the least bit of news this week.

As auto sales taper off, we'll see a reallocation of spending. A resolution of the Iraq situation will cause a relief rally and get companies to invest back into the business, ... Also, oil prices will plummet and that typically stimulates real income growth.

By the end of the year, there will be some builders with some overhang of construction relative to demand, ... Now's the time when you'd hope everybody cools off a bit and moderates their building, but that's not human nature -- and it's not the way for homebuilders to make money in the near term.

Even more than the early 1990s, this is a jobless recovery. Productivity growth is playing twice the role it played in the early 1990s in driving economic gains, which means less payrolls growth.

Given the obvious hardship of having illegal aliens flooding in, we also know they are critical to the functioning of the U.S. economy. To be turning our backs on people who want to work is kind of silly in an environment where you've got tight labor markets and we're getting older and need younger people to work.

He has faced many different kinds of economic environments. He has thrown away any kind of rule of thumb.

He'd like to bring in inflation targeting. (But) he must build consensus to do so and he doesn't have consensus now. I think he's going to make a smooth transition, but it's going to be an evolution in policy change.

He's certainly opened the door to another rate cut.

I don't think we're gong to get any more at all.

I think it does encourage flight to quality, temporarily, but actually I think once we get beyond this point, there is a deadline here, ... December 12th is a deadline out there looming not very long away, and I think that once we get beyond that point we really will see this as little more than a blip in the radar screen, as much as it seems like a major event in the moment for the markets. But it's not part of the fundamental economy.

I think the market is tired of Christmas. We've already seen the Christmas reports. As far as the market is concerned, that's old news.

I think this is clearly the Fed saying 'we're willing to take out an insurance policy, we're not willing to risk recession',

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