We have a lot of factors at play here. It's an accumulation of all the negative economic news this week, capped off by the jobless data this morning, bond yields declining so sharply, and the weak forecasts out of companies. But what really accelerated the selling was the note out of Goldman Sachs about the Fed. |
We have the consumer confidence report tomorrow. I don't see how that's going to be any good. I would consider it a victory if we get (a reading) of 82. |
We made a good recovery off the April lows, but now we may need to move sideways and consolidate. Maybe then that will set us up for the typical November through January advance. |
We may need some new impetus to get past the highs we've hit this year. |
We need a spark, I just don't see what there is in next week's numbers that's going to do it. |
We saw a 2 or 3 percent pullback in early November and it has come back since then. What could take us higher in December is a good pre-announcement season. |
We're drifting, and we're probably going to keep drifting for the next few weeks. But that's OK, there are positive developments out there. Oil prices seem to be under control, and I'm more encouraged about the second-quarter earnings than I have been in a while. |
We're getting hit over the head in all directions. |
We're in good shape for now, but there's still going to be this anxiety, where people are looking over their shoulders, waiting to see what's coming next on the national level. |
We're just kind of grinding in place. |
We're projecting technology earnings are going to grow almost 40 percent this quarter and that's on top of a very, very strong 1999. Energy company earnings obviously will grow close to 80 percent, but that's on top of a weak '99. So there are companies that should have leadership. After all, if you look at the companies that issue profit warnings last week; Maytag, McDonald's, I mean I don't think the future of growth of American economy is washing machines or cheeseburgers. |
We're trying to go the distance for a change, but we're basically hostage to these geopolitical events. We're not going to sustain anything consistently on the upside until we get a resolution to this thing. |
We've gone up nine days in a row. I think we're probably in for a brief pullback next week, probably in response to the Fed statement. |
We've had moon shots over the last few days, so this is natural. The market is digesting a lot of the gains it has made. The important thing is there is an asset allocation shift that has followed through from yesterday, with people getting out of bonds and into stocks. |
What's interesting is it's rare to break new highs in an industry that's pretty much bombed this year. Many stocks go sideways. This one is moving up. |