82 ordspråk av Drew Matus

Drew Matus

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There's no sign of inflation, and the labor market is still weak. There's still plenty of room from the Fed's point of view.

These numbers are weak across the board. But of course, that's good for bonds. It just adds to the case for the Fed leaving rates low for a very long time to come.

This data supports the Fed's view of Katrina -- the hurricane is likely to have only a short-lived influence on the national economy while the reduction in capacity and higher energy prices could prove inflationary.

This is as aggressive as I've ever seen for the Fed in terms of making clear that they're raising rates and that they're not near being done.

This is obviously an extraordinarily strong report, led by the consumer, but also with good signs about the state of the business sector and business confidence.

This level of inflation, combined with falling unemployment and rising capacity utilization, is a recipe for continued preventative rate hikes.

This raises possibility of a pass through into core inflation. While companies can absorb some of the pipeline pressures, the way to do so is productivity gains that we're not seeing anymore.

This says the U.S. consumer is still in the ball game and playing like a champion.

Traditionally, we have had some connection between the amount of firing and the amount of hiring in the economy. That linkage has broken as productivity gains have taken hold and firms have become more cautious overall.

Treasury has claimed it didn't want to issue anything beyond 10-years because that tied their hands. Now the market's thinking that if a 20-year is suddenly OK, then why not bring back the 30-year?

We continue to expect the Fed to raise rates three more times, raising the fed funds rate to 4.50 percent by the end of January.

We expect a balanced speech that reaffirms that a March hike is likely, but that subsequent moves are data-dependent.

We expect the recent jump in retail gasoline prices to push down confidence. Optimistic views around the labor market will likely offset some of the gasoline sticker shock.

We had a lot of companies in that period that were not making money, hiring a lot of people who were not doing anything for their pay.

We have had an extraordinary period of job growth the last four months. The bond market is always worried about higher growth, and the equity market is concerned that the Fed might be more likely to overshoot, and take rates too high.

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