14 ordspråk av Ed Keon

Ed Keon

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Analysts' forecasts for earnings I think are still a little too high. They are expecting 8-percent earnings growth. I don't think we're going to do that. For next year, they're expecting 14-percent earnings growth. I think we'll be lucky to do half of that.

I have to live with the facts as they are, rather than as I wish they would be or think they might be in the future.

I think inflationary pressures are growing a little bit. In the long run, the Fed will be able to deal with those pressures. We may see a little longer period of uncertainty as we deal with that.

I think we expect earnings in general to be better than expected. Two or three companies will beat expectations for every one that falls short. As a group, earnings will probably be 1, 2, or 3 percent above what analysts are expecting.

It is certainly a risk if you have new money in the market now with these kind of price- earnings ratios, ... If you're queasy about drops and ups and downs this might be a time to be a little cautious.

The confidence in U.S. equities is just not there.

The core inflation number was the key number. I've been personally wondering and so has the market about the possibility that inflationary pressures are rising. ... However, this data point at least would seem to contradict that.

The Fed may end up being on the job longer than we originally thought.

The referral of Iran to the U.N. Security Council suggests that the crisis might have legs as the world tries to stop the Iranians from developing nuclear weapons. It does not matter what happens in Iran, it is the uncertainty about Iran that tends to be very bad for markets.

There's still some danger that inflation could pick up, and higher energy prices could feed into that. But overall, it does not look like substantial inflationary pressures are developing.

We feel that numbers are not as bad as people think as a few high profile names have reported below expectations. Numbers so far have come down from where they were but have still come in about 5% ahead of analysts' forecasts ... We believe that growth rates are still pretty robust at about six percent growth for the year.

When things seem very risky it often represents opportunity.

[Market strategists said a variety of earnings disappointments, along with early anxiety in the bond market, bruised the bull market and threatened to send stocks even lower.] It is certainly a risk if you have new money in the market now with these kind of price-earnings ratios, ... This might be a time to be a little cautious.

[Two thoughts. First, savvy investors have long ignored the cost of goodwill amortization in valuing a company (many prefer cash now).] It's just cosmetics, ... If companies soar in value for the sole reason of this accounting change, I would take advantage of it and sell those stocks.

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