But we remain cautious because the car industry should weigh on spending while sales of household goods, which have shown steady growth, should see a correction in coming months, |
For the moment there is absolutely no sign of a turnaround, ... The impact of the global slowdown on the French economy will continue to be felt in 2002. |
For the moment there is absolutely no sign of a turnaround. The impact of the global slowdown on the French economy will continue to be felt in 2002. |
It's normal for a new prime minister to enjoy rising popularity in the first months. The difficulties run very deep. The context is profoundly depressed. |
Moreover, the four motors of consumption -- that is wages, inflation, unemployment and consumer confidence -- are on a downward trend and should drag spending down. |
should start to deteriorate ands reach a reach in September. Only a global economic improvement would allow a drop in unemployment in the long term. |
The broad picture looks better than expected but we have to watch figures very carefully. A downward correction driven by a relapse in consumer spending is very likely in the fourth quarter. That's why I remain cautious. |
The rebound is very slow, gradual and uncertain. The survey shows a changing scenario in July, notably on the personal and general business outlooks which deteriorated significantly. |
The weakness of activity in the fourth quarter is not at all a surprise for us. It confirms the fact that growth remains low in France. |
There is a disconnect between the outlook for the French economy, which is a bit lower, and the perception of the global economy, which is up. |
This confirms my pessimistic scenario of a 0.9 percent growth for 2004 and consumer spending recovering only in 2005. |
This is the highest inflation rate we've seen in over three years and much higher than 0.3 percent in June 1999, ... Euro-zone inflation should come in around 2.2 percent in June, and the ECB is likely to respond with a 25-basis-point rate rise in September. |
This is the highest inflation rate we've seen in over three years and much higher than 0.3 percent in June 1999. Euro-zone inflation should come in around 2.2 percent in June, and the ECB is likely to respond with a 25-basis-point rate rise in September. |
We were expecting a kind of balancing out between rising business sentiment and consumer confidence, which we thought would slip, but in fact we have improved on both fronts. |