187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.

If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.

If the Fed isn't happy, the market isn't happy.

If we have an economy that functions O.K., with a little help from the Fed, in that case gridlock is quite good for the market,

If we have an economy that functions O.K., with a little help from the Fed, in that case gridlock is quite good for the market.

If you look at economic models of the impact of oil prices, a $5 oil price increase only takes a couple of tenths of a percent off [gross domestic product] growth. Things have to get a lot worse before this becomes a major shock to the U.S. economy.

If you're doing budget planning in business, you budget for the downside risks, not for the most optimistic scenario. But the federal government doesn't have to worry too much -- it's the only business that has a blank check.

Imagine you're a bank. The corporate sector isn't interested in borrowing, so you can't lend to it. So where do you go? Well, mortgages. They pay a reasonable rate. They're seen as a safe investment. Load up on mortgage-backed securities.

In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.

In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record,

In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.

In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.

In the preliminary reading an increase in the index of current conditions was offset by a decrease in the expectations index. We expect a similar breakdown in the final survey.

In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.

It generally just adds to the case for investors taking a little more cautious view on risk and demanding higher returns on investments.

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