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Frank Nothaft

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Although the 30-year mortgage rate ticked up this week, which wasn't completely unexpected, it is still below last year's annual average and well below where it was at this time last year,

Although the economy in the final quarter of 2002 looks to be weaker than the third quarter, the housing sector still radiates vitality and vigor. We continue to see new records being set, both in the low cost of mortgages and the volume of business carried out this year.

Although the signs are mixed, the housing industry is now beginning to shift into slower gear, and higher mortgage rates will only strengthen that change. However, we see no signs of a bursting bubble, but rather a return to a more normal pace of activity.

Although this past month's dramatic rise in mortgage rates is consistent with an economic recovery, it will take more than one month of strong employment gains to verify this recovery is sustainable.

Although we anticipate a moderation in the housing sector at some future point, with the economy picking up steam and mortgage rates still low by historical standards, the housing market will remain buoyant for at least the rest of the year.

And although refinancing has fallen off somewhat, home buying activity remains vigorous, unfazed by market chatter that the end of the housing boom is near,

And although refinancing has fallen off somewhat, home buying activity remains vigorous, unfazed by market chatter that the end of the housing boom is near.

And speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon take a break in raising short-term rates reduces upward pressure on long- and short-term interest rates.

And when inflation is thought to be in check, mortgage rates naturally drift downward as they did this week.

And with mortgage rates at their lowest level in six months, home sales should continue strong through the autumn months.

And, as also expected, short-term mortgage rates moved upward in response to those same actions.

Anticipation of a 25-basis-point rate cut pushed mortgage rates downward in this week's survey, and we expect to see further downward drifts over the coming week or so as the market moves on the actual larger rate cut itself.

Anticipation that the Federal Reserve may well cut rates at its next meeting, combined with further weakness in certain sectors of the economy, caused interest rates to fall again.

As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter, ... To put this in perspective, this would compare to 17 percent of real GDP growth over all of 2004.

As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter. To put this in perspective, this would compare to 17 percent of real GDP growth over all of 2004.

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