For the last two days [Treasury prices] have slowly been grinding higher and that was basically erased this morning in about 15 minutes after the durable goods data. |
He opened the door a little bit to a Fed pause, and to the chance that maybe the economy hasn't been quite as strong as he had been saying. |
Historically, dollar weakness does lead to higher back end rates. |
If I had $100 million to put into a single Treasury coupon security, I would be defensive and invest in two-year notes. Rates are going up, and there's less risk in the two-year. |
It will be hard for him to give guidance, because the Fed is not certain as to exactly where they are going and they are very data-dependent. |
People are getting defensive, setting up for payrolls. We live from payroll to payroll, and the market fiddles around in between. |
Poole was both bullish and bearish. The market hasn't moved much. I think we'll be in a range around 4.75 percent level prior to payrolls. |
Pressure from bunds is working its way into the Treasury market. Bunds and Treasuries are moving hand in hand. |
Since it's broken through that, that sets a negative tone for the market. |
The Fed is erring on the side of fighting inflation and is willing to risk slower growth. |
There are probably some rate locks coming off. |
There are some fears about inflation but people are even more concerned about what's happening in the corporate credit market. |
There is some rate-locking going on, and that's pushing the market lower. |
There is very much of a flight to quality, although by now financial markets are settling down a bit. |
There will be fairly good demand for the 30-year bond. |