Bavaria appears to be only a small part of Germany, but it's not so small. |
Domestic demand appears to be improving significantly, especially in the construction sector, as well as for retail sales, where expectations are very positive. |
High-tech industries are important for a country with high wages as Germany is, so there are good points which can be used for Germany as a whole. But of course it will be difficult to duplicate all the measures. |
I think we can say we have turned the corner. Investments are picking up, and consumers are starting to spend money. |
In our opinion, we're close to the turning point. We can say that the economy is firming, and we can talk of the start of a recovery. |
In terms of current interest rate levels and inflation, the ECB has room to cut rates and help the upturn, ... I would say that a cut would fit into the environment now. |
In terms of current interest rate levels and inflation, the ECB has room to cut rates and help the upturn. I would say that a cut would fit into the environment now. |
It looks like this will be a full-blown upturn. |
Normally, it doesn't influence immediately the assessment. For industrial companies, the impact normally is rather delayed. They don't look so much at the interest rate. |
Sentiment rose across the board, and particularly among retailers. Consumer demand seems to be finally picking up. |
The economic situation in Germany appears to be strengthening. Of course, we need more signals to talk about a real recovery. If one took only the expectation of the companies that handed in the information later, the increase of the index would be smaller. |
there are fundamentally good reasons to cut interest rates. |
There's clearly room to go up. |
We can find all sorts of differences between Japan then and Europe now. But it's a lesson to us all to be on the safe side of an unknown before one acts. |
We still think a trough should be reached in the first quarter but to be sure we get a recovery, we should see expectations improving in January or February at the latest. |