28 ordspråk av Harvinder Kalirai

Harvinder Kalirai

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At these levels, the Australian dollar is looking attractive. A decline in U.S. interest-rate expectations is beneficial for Australia.

High commodity prices are boosting Brazil's terms of trade and leading to record trade surpluses. A favorable external backdrop and still high real interest rates should support the Brazilian real.

I consistently say the Australian dollar is heading higher. Commodities are at the start of a 15- to 20-year bull run.

If manufacturing is recovering [from] this drag on growth, which is already strong, it is probably going to raise some concerns at the Fed.

If the market begins to expect a more imminent end to the Fed's tightening cycle that would certainly remove the interest rate support for the dollar,

If the market begins to expect a more imminent end to the Fed's tightening cycle that would certainly remove the interest rate support for the dollar.

If you look back to 1994 when the Fed was hiking rates continuously, after every rate hike the Fed adopted a neutral bias. However, the tightening cycle continued until early '95, for a total of 300 basis points (3 percent). We are not looking for that type of tightening cycle this time, but nevertheless it does suggest that the neutral bias does not preclude further rate hikes down the road.

It highlights the imbalances that [Federal Reserve Chairman Alan] Greenspan has talked about the last several months. If it doesn't correct on its own by, say, the Fed taking the steam out of the bubble, you could have a violent correction and a market crash, and that could be a serious risk to the economy.

July was much stronger than expected, but when you factor in the revisions to June, there's only a 0.4 percent increase ... I think these numbers are very close to consensus forecast.

Manufacturing is recovering -- and the recovery, in fact, is accelerating.

The Australian currency may rise to US80c over the next month,

The Australian currency may rise to US80c over the next month.

The commodity story remains very positive for Australia. Relative to commodities prices the Australian dollar isn't overvalued.

The trend is still toward wider deficits, so this is a concern for the U.S. dollar. I continue to forecast it lower.

There are a few signs of cracks beneath the surface in the U.S. economy, starting with the weak durable goods and confidence figures last week, and now with the rise in oil.

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