Accounting concerns continue to dominate the market. We're going to be seeing this 'Prove it to me' investing for a while. |
After looking at the employment numbers, there is no doubt in my mind that the measured language remains. Knowing what we know now, there's no pause in 2005. |
All of those things conspired to create a difficult environment for stocks. |
Any bad news can throw us, and the jobs report was perceived as bad news, seen as a sign that the recovery is fragile, but that's not necessarily true. In the last two recessions, a pickup in employment only happened a year after the recession had ended. So just because unemployment is higher doesn't mean we're not on track for a recovery. |
Any number Wal-Mart gives is tantamount to an economic indicator, |
Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today, |
But the key here is really going to be guidance. Everyone is looking for signs of the rolling over of profit growth, although not as much as the Fed or higher energy prices might indicate. |
Confidence is slipping, manufacturing is slowing, and even with today's jobs report, the employment trend is still negative. The bet here is that the Federal Reserve will have to stop raising rates in order to keep the economy from sliding further. |
Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure. |
Economists are expecting a gradual slowdown in economic growth paired with a slowdown in inflation, ... That will allow the Federal Reserve to wind up its rate-hiking campaign. |
Economists are expecting a gradual slowdown in economic growth paired with a slowdown in inflation. That will allow the Federal Reserve to wind up its rate-hiking campaign. |
For the fee-based deal business, it's still a favorable environment. But they also have a huge consumer credit exposure. |
Fundamentally, I think the stock market is fairly valued, but there are a lot of issues around that are causing investor concern. |
Generally, Wal-Mart can give real-time data faster than the government, because they can just pull this off their cash registers. |
Gold is creating a psychological dark cloud over the market. With gold on the upside and inflation fears, the numbers we get tomorrow will clarify some of these concerns. |