Oil is the dog that didn't bark. It's neutral because it's not far away from the average of where it's been over the past year. |
Some slippage in other categories is probably due given very strong gains in recent months. |
The ... numbers feel surprisingly weak, compared with the recent [macroeconomic] news flow, ... The survey makes us more comfortable with the view that capital spending growth over the next few quarters will remain relatively moderate by the standards of past recoveries. |
The chairman now sounds notably more worried than previously that house prices have risen too much and that the downturn could have a severe effect on the U.S. economy. |
The consumer numbers are certainly more important than normal. |
The deterioration in housing affordability is one key reason. |
The message is pretty clear here: they are quite determined to keep going. |
The ratio of inventories to shipments rose a bit in the latest month. We have found movements in this ratio to be a good indicator of industrial activity. Just a straw in the wind at this point, but a possible indication of future moderation in the sector. |
The September consumer confidence number on Tuesday is going to be pretty interesting. You could easily get a huge decline. |
The U.S. consumer roars back. |
There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched, |
There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched. |
They want to see how these first two rate increases go first. They are trying to straddle between not committing themselves to a third rate rise and not driving the stock market through the roof by saying they're done. |
This is probably one of the most important jobs reports that we have had in a couple of years. |
We are exhausting the pool of the unemployed and of otherwise available workers. |