[Overall, following the statement,] the market is fairly clear that the Fed will keep raising rates by a quarter percentage point at each meeting through the end of the year, ... What the market is less sure of is what impact this will have on the economy. |
All of these things point to an improving environment for stocks, but the outlook for the year remains flat, ... I would think the S&P 500 will trade in a range of about 1,075 to 1,125 until the fourth quarter. |
An investment in the true cost of Christmas would have yielded a better return than the stock market over the past year. However, the true cost of Christmas hedge fund has yet to be created. |
But with the recent data, I expect that to move north of 5 percent. The economy is pretty strong. |
By the fourth quarter, we'll have better clarity on the presidential election, we'll know more about interest rates, about how the transition of power in Iraq has played out, and hopefully, oil prices will be under control. |
Consumers still do appear to be spending their (tax) rebate checks, but perhaps not as aggressively as we would have hoped. Certainly corporate profits still look pretty bleak headed into the third-quarter warning season. |
I think it's a tradeoff of risks for the market, |
I think it's a tradeoff of risks for the market. |
I think we're at a point where the data coming in is good and robust, but not strong enough to suggest things are overheating. The forward-looking data seems to indicate the same. |
It may be a little bit of a buyers' strike ... if we do get a strong (payroll) report tomorrow, it suggests the Fed is going to have to be more aggressive. |
It's about finding the right company with a compelling story. |
It's not a sector play. There's no real huge leader like tech was in the '90s. It's about finding the right company with a compelling story. |
No doubt a fall in energy prices makes his job over the next 12 months easier. |
Nobody wants to get ahead of things. |
Nobody wants to get ahead of things. The stuff that could happen later in the year could be creeping into things now, which is keeping us flatter than I would've liked. |