Consumers are clearly being impacted by the three hurricanes, ... That, combined with natural gas and gasoline prices, is having an effect. I think $3 a gallon gasoline is the tipping point to a consumer that is under siege. But this number is really no great surprise. |
Dedicated short sellers tend to be among the smarter investors on the Street, |
Earnings are coming in pretty much on target. |
Earnings are coming in pretty much on target. We do have an option expiration so there is a lot of noise. |
I don't know how to handicap terrorism, other than to say that I think the risk premium should be higher than it is. But I think I can predict, directionally, earnings and the momentum of the economy. |
I don't pay much attention to what the Fed says because I don't know what they mean when they say it. It's like Nostradamus. These folks talk in quatrains. It's kind of comical as everyone tries to dissect this stuff, |
I think earnings look fairly mixed here. |
I'm not bearish. I don't think we're going into a recession and I'm not worried about deflation ... But earnings growth should only be about 7 to 8 percent this year and guidance for earnings keeps coming down. |
I've been investing in boring things, and boring has been pretty good. |
If you think you can recklessly buy stocks you have to be assuming more than a V-shaped recovery in earnings -- you have to be assuming a hockey-stick shaped recovery. |
Markets will be stuck in the middle, |
The big concern is future inflation and the Fed is viewing that through the labor market. Wage growth continues to be muted. |
The cheerleaders talk about the economy growing, but the economy grew at 7 percent from 1966 to 1982, while stocks went nowhere because valuations were too optimistic. And they're optimistic now, by historic measurements. |
The consensus is technology is cheap, and I think that's probably true. |
The employment number that came out last Friday is consistent with a muddling economy. It's a fait accompli that the Fed will go up just a quarter point, |