At the same time we had Greenspan reinforcing that the U.S. growth backdrop and rate outlook are positive for the dollar. |
Cable (sterling/dollar) could go lower in the first half of the year as we think the Fed will continue to hike rates, but in the second half we might see a recovery in sterling. |
Confidence in the housing market helps consumer spending. That'll be supportive for sterling and it's not going to play too well with the shorter end of the gilt curve. |
I think euro bulls were disappointed by the ECB, |
I think probably yesterday's move was a little bit overdone but obviously we've broken through some reasonably sizeable technical levels and that does beg the question as to whether there is a bit further to run. |
If we continue to see strong data coming through talk of higher rates will be perpetuated. Sterling has a pretty positive background. |
Interest rates, I think, will start to fall in the U.S. in 1999, suggesting that the Euro will outperform the dollar in the early stages, |
Interest rates, I think, will start to fall in the U.S. in 1999, suggesting that the Euro will outperform the dollar in the early stages. |
It's a positive background for the yen, and investors are coming back in after a large move yesterday. The economic recovery looks pretty durable and we'll be seeing the end of deflation soon. |
It's all very well releasing a little bit of extra oil, but the other problem is logistics with refining. Refining capacity is under serious pressure in the South of the U.S., and extra supply isn't going to alleviate the refinery shortage. |
It's not surprising we have seen a sizeable hit in the euro. There was a reasonable perception it would be a close-run election and everybody's worst case scenario has come to pass, |
Japanese authorities seem very comfortable with the value of the yen and investors are keen to buy. Given that there are questions about the U.S. rate cycle, people are becoming more confident in betting on the yen. |
M&A activity has been a key influence on sterling over the recent weeks and months ... and if that's going to be a continuing theme, then that will at least provide a floor for sterling. |
M&A activity is likely to prove supportive for sterling and with recent economic data suggesting there is no risk of lower rates any time soon, I think the backdrop remains fairly constructive. |
People are looking ahead to the CPI data tomorrow that I think will probably continue the presumption that the Fed has still got a little way to go with hiking. |