After being up 260 points over past two days, the market is entitled to a pullback. |
Everybody is in a holding pattern waiting for Mr Blix. |
Everyone seems to be convinced that no matter what happens Bush is determined to invade Iraq. |
It looks like this is taking longer than expected, no matter what the positive [spin] the military is trying to put on it. |
Maybe the psychology is changing. Maybe we get a little courage back here. |
People are still very very nervous and looking over their shoulder on the domestic recovery. I think the market could come back again, though -- stocks have had a lot of resilience the last few days. |
People like the plan. It doesn't mean that the Dow's going straight to 9,000, but this could be relatively helpful for the market. |
People think the worst is over in a lot of these things. It's given them courage to come back in. |
People were expecting weak retail sales, they were already in the stocks. |
Right now the perception is we are not going to get the earnings recovery we thought we were going to get. |
The market is overextended. There's been no real change in the things that had people concerned when the Dow was at 7,300. |
The speculators always do that. They buy the stuff that's going in and sell the stuff that's going out. You see it all the time. |
There hasn't been a big reaction to Bush because it's fairly well factored in. The market will likely show some reaction to actual military action, but on balance it's priced in. |
There's definitely been a shift in psychology toward buying equities instead of selling them. People have decided that even though it's going to be a slow recovery, it's better to be in stocks than in bonds. |
This little bounce, I don't think it's going to hold. Until you get some settlement in Iraq, there's no change in the outlook. With all the big pools of money sitting on the sidelines, I don't see a sustainable rally. |