[One potential sticking point in all this is verification. Analysts have long suggested that North Korea wants a nuclear arsenal as a deterrent to attacks, rather than as part of an offensive strategy to invade South Korea. To maintain its deterrent capability, the North would need only a few weapons and a rudimentary delivery system, and hiding such a small cache in the country's underdeveloped hinterland would not be difficult.] Verification is definitely a problem, ... But to reach a new agreement they need progress, and today's statement is progress. |
Both sides are paying more attention to the relationship and trying to define and shape it. But without any urgent issues demanding attention, this visit was always going to be exploratory, not defining. |
He won't really emerge as his own leader until the next party congress. |
I think the Chinese side is eager to have normal military-to-military ties with the American Army. |
The main target is the United States. Both sides want to improve their position for bargaining in terms of security, politics and economics. |
The responsible elite in China has no intention of picking a fight with the United States. But no one has much hope that the two countries can develop deep feelings of trust, either. |
There will still be trade disputes with the Bush administration, but it's unlikely these disputes will increase. The same goes for human rights. |
These speeches are an appeal to the American public. He wants to show that China's development is peaceful, that China is a responsible stake-holder. |
Verification is definitely a problem. But to reach a new agreement they need progress, and today's statement is progress. |