Current market action is unconvincing. Volume is simply far too low for confidence. |
Greenspan is often chided for those comments but looking back they seemed very timely, |
I put on some shorts going into the close, ... It seemed like a good idea -- the market had simply gone too far, too fast. |
I think the rally has a while to go yet, maybe another few weeks, ... Then it's going to be choked off primarily by a valuation problem that people will not be able to dodge. Buying IBM at 30 times earnings -- that's very hard to do for most investors. |
I think the rally has a while to go yet, maybe another few weeks. Then it's going to be choked off primarily by a valuation problem that people will not be able to dodge. Buying IBM at 30 times earnings -- that's very hard to do for most investors. |
I would have thought that with the negative tenor of the news -- economic and geopolitical -- more damage would be done, ... That suggests to me the market is in a constructive mode. |
Investors are now realizing that their (worst fears) were overblown. |
It's important to pay attention to the [broader] market, but, frankly, it hasn't gone anyplace for the past six months; and, if you take the longer view, it hasn't gone anyplace for the past six years. But within those years, there were tremendous opportunities within stocks, bonds, electronically traded funds, mutual funds of all sorts, currencies, precious metals and commodities, all of which investors could have taken advantage of. |
It's just an extremely sad situation. |
Part of the reason the January barometer works so well is a statistical faux pas. It uses January to predict the year, not the following 11 months. |
Peaks indicated times of intense speculation and troughs indicated times of low interest in the market, when speculation was not high on people's agenda. |
People have been punished, punished badly. I don't think they're going to come in. |
Technical analysis works precisely because people look at it. And if people care, I care. |
The mutual fund scandal is a bigger deal than anyone thinks right now. There's real turmoil in the mutual fund world. You don't take down a fund group like Putnam without creating a tremendous amount of angst and uncertainty. |
The pain level is as severe as anything the market has ever inflicted on investors before, |