135 ordspråk av John Lonski

John Lonski

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We have early indications that the tax rebates are having a lift on consumer spending, ... The sense is that the tax rebates, to the degree that they provide a lift to spending, will further the process of inventory depletion.

We have gone from a situation where investors were on the verge of a nervous breakdown to a level of high anxiety.

We have hard evidence that there has been a pullback of foreign buying of U.S .Treasury securities, ... But more importantly, faster economic growth abroad will be to the benefit of the U.S. economy, will provide a boost to corporate revenues, perhaps add to the demand for labor, which can only increase inflation risks and puts more pressure on the Fed to eventually hike interest rates again.

We have some hint that the tax rebate program just might be able to pull the economy out of its funk,

We have to be braced for a gradual upturn in the federal funds rate.

Well, granted there still might be some temporary setbacks with the Japanese economy, but let us not forget that the major reason we had the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times at the end of 1998,

What we are seeing is a relatively low level of unemployment claims.

What we have here is a dangerous mix of fast-growing debt and fast-rising unemployment that could quickly put the brakes on consumer spending.

What we have here is the best of all possible worlds. We have the containment of inflation -- it almost appears to be price deflation -- and yet we're still doing very well in terms of corporate earnings growth.

When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear.

You are being compensated for that risk,

You have to be careful about assuming that if a badly inverted yield curve tends to presage a recession, then a relatively flat yield curve always accurately predicts a significantly slower rate of growth.

You look at this and all you can say is, yes, monetary policy remains accommodative, it's not even neutral yet, and interest rates are too low in that they still fuel the speculative purchase of housing activity,

You're looking at data from September. But it does remind us just how strong domestic spending is.

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