38 ordspråk av John Reade

John Reade

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After the rapid rally in gold over the past few months a correction is almost inevitable at some point and this could be it.

Although we view this as a done deal, the lack of finality in the approval may be holding some investors back. We continue to believe that silver will trade higher from here.

Base and precious metals are considerably above what we consider to be fair value - based on fundamental supply and demand factors - but events of the past two years have demonstrated that investment and speculative flows are very capable of lifting prices well beyond fundamental fair value.

Both platinum and rhodium remain at or near the highs for this rally and are benefiting from broader metals interest and, in the case of rhodium, apparent genuine shortages.

But the other factor is that we have indications that Chinese demand for platinum is recovering despite prices being stable between $845 and $880.

Further strength in the metals appears likely.

Gold and the other precious metals appear to have found support after the recent sell-off, however, we believe it is too soon to turn bullish on gold specifically.

Gold has started 2006 in a positive manner and we suspect that this strength will continue in the near term.

Gold is in search of a fresh catalyst to return it to recent highs.

Gold is trying to establish itself in a range at the moment. The market is looking for fresh direction.

Gold looks set to be supported and set to move higher as we approach the anniversary of the 9/11 attack on the U.S. and the expectations of an attack on Iraq intensify.

I do believe that the recent run up in gold has been almost entirely driven by speculative and investment demand as jewelry demand has fallen sharply.

I still want to see this correction find some decent physical demand ... Once we can prove that physical demand is actually going to support gold, that will encourage people to take gold higher again.

I would say that when buying gold shares, additional risk is taken on compared to buying the metal or a derivative thereon.

In an environment where mine supply is broadly static, central bank sales effectively constrained and scrap supply declining, strong physical demand is genuinely important.

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