45 ordspråk av John Ryding

John Ryding

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Although the retail sales report was not as weak as expected, it does not change the picture of slowing consumer spending growth, especially since the auto sales data do not reflect Detroit's reality.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

And also there's a large rush of supply of corporate bonds, for example, coming to market. So we're getting a lot of supply this time of year, where normally it would be more quiet time for issuers.

As we work toward a reopening of the equity markets, we believe that a cut in rates is even more important than it was before.

Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the ( Federal Reserve 's) informal target range of one-two percent.

Core inflation remains contained in November, albeit at the upper end of the Feds informal target range of 1-2 pct.

Energy prices do matter, especially to the public's perception of inflation.

From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.

Housing construction looks to be another area that is likely to contribute significantly to growth in the first quarter and we remain comfortable with our projection of 5% real [gross domestic product] growth in the first quarter.

I don't think it is inflationary.

I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.

I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.

I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.

I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.

If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.

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