A dovish Inflation Report tomorrow and soft retail sales on Thursday could open the door to a March rate cut. |
A very weak report, casting doubt on the Monetary Policy Committee's assumption that household spending will grow in line with its long-term average over the next three years and boosting the chances of a rate cut. |
Alongside the gathering momentum evident in the euro zone economy, the virtual confirmation of a hike in March supports our view that ECB interest rates will rise further than markets are anticipating. |
August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected, |
August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected, but still leave public borrowing on track to overshoot Brown's forecasts this year significantly, |
August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected, but still leave public borrowing on track to overshoot Brown's forecasts this year significantly. |
August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected. |
I don't think he can put off the inevitable. Sometime in the next two years he will have to raise taxes but he won't want to leave it too late in the political cycle. |
I think in the near term there will be more upward pressure, |
Indeed, it may only have been a reluctance to surprise the markets that stopped the committee from cutting rates (last week). |
Interest rates are very likely to remain on hold for a seventh consecutive month in March, it being the only month in which the MPC has never changed rates in either direction since taking control in 1997. |
It just seems to me that although the stock market has already risen quite strongly, if you look at how quickly the macroeconomic indicators have risen, there is still some scope for the market to rise even further. |
It would have been better to have left the growth forecast unchanged, but that would have lowered the inflation forecast to below its target. They are having to work hard not to have to cut interest rates. |
Italy is going to remain at the back of the performance tables. We should see a pick-up in growth this year, but it is coming off a very low base. It is a cyclical recovery rather than any kind of real structural improvement. |
January's UK retail sales figures confirm the evidence from the surveys that the pick-up in spending growth over Christmas was short-lived. |