As long as the fundamental conditions continue to come on the way they have been ... the profits roll on. And if profits roll on, investors will have to pay more for those earnings, because their alternative investments are limited. |
Between very high short-interest looking to cover, fairly good economic news, signs the Fed is staying put and better earnings on the way, people are very eager to get in right now, ... I think that barring a terrorist attack or some very disappointing earnings, the market looks like it's going to continue to gain through the next few weeks. |
But if you step back, it seems to me that we're still in the trading range we've been in for some time. There's still the push and pull between rising earnings and rising interest rates. |
Clearly, it's all about the economy. The consumers are doing their part . Now the business side has to come along, too. That's why today's soft ISM number was so disappointing. |
CPI data was benign but the data was prior to Hurricane Katrina, ... Still, no one is quite sure about what the Fed is going to do going ahead. So the market is not showing much conviction. |
Going into this week, there were a lot of expectations that the tech stocks would deliver good numbers. As those numbers come out it's not surprising that there would be some profit taking. It's a temporary phenomenon. |
I don't see much of a correction at all, |
I don't see them getting much worse than 6-1/4 percent on the long end, ... The overall bond market is not completely convinced that we're going to see meaningful higher interest rates. Something is going to give here, and my sense is that the Fed is not going beyond this second cut. |
I don't think there's a huge upside in the major indexes after the run we've seen. But there are still good opportunities out there and through the first quarter, it just won't be quite as easy as a year ago. |
I like the retail group as a whole because now Wall Street has soured on these companies, ... They're worried about the consumer vitality. But don't forget we have an election coming up in November. That actually stirs confidence, interestingly enough. This could be another good Christmas season. Also this summer, we may not see a drought for most of the country, which means people's spending on home and hearth might be a little better than it was last year when it was so tough outside. |
I think gold is not the right place to be right now, ... The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are now the safety valves. |
I think gold is not the right place to be right now. The dollar and U.S. Treasuries are now the safety valves. |
I think investors were looking for an excuse to take some profits after a blisteringly good pace in November. Higher energy prices near term, and the continuing battle in Washington over the course of the Iraq war have provided sufficient reason for investors to take a little profit. |
I think it is a quarter of a point move up, but a neutral stance by the Fed, opening up the way I think for a big rally for the rest of the year, |
I think the good news is that the current quarter is OK, and the challenge is going to be what comes next, |