Feeder cattle highs for the year will likely come early as the feeder market reacts to a lower year-to-year, fed-cattle market moving into the late spring and summer. Feeder cattle basis levels in April and May could be highly erratic due to forced early movement of wheat cattle off winter grazing programs. |
The steer calf market should follow a very seasonal pattern, with the highs in the spring and the lows in the fall. The correction into the fall is expected to be larger than has been seen in the last few years. |
This spread has been unseasonably wide so far in 2006, reflecting the tight available supply of market ready cattle, especially in the south. |
We're still far from what I would say is a fully funded operation in maintenance and those kinds of things. |
When the spread is wide, packers are forced into the market — and producers have leverage. When the spread narrows, packers have the leverage. |