After the strong October car sales that were reported last week, it wouldn't be out of the question that the Fed would think things are improving. |
Given some of the strong data we've seen lately, it's not surprising he's bullish on the economy. There's not a lot of new news in this. |
I don't put a lot of faith in the month-to-month swings in the trade data, but we had expected a modest widening in the gap. This narrowing will feed into a little bit more positive reading to second-quarter GDP. |
I think were just having a little short-covering ahead of the weekend. We often see a bit of bottom-fishing when the yield is around 4.5%. |
It's a done deal. We're looking for a fairly long, drawn out Senate trial. |
It's important to expose kids to experiences they might not get in the classroom. |
Our view is very optimistic. We believe that the tight yield curve is the result of the Fed's continued tightening. We are expecting economic growth of 4% much of this year. That is far from a recession. |
People don't see a lot of value in a 10-year note that currently is yielding above the Fed funds rate but will not be in a week. |
Productivity still remains really solid, and one of the hallmarks of this whole expansion. If we can hang on to that I think the perception of where we're going in the market could change dramatically. |
Productivity, so far, has really enabled the economy to grow at a more rapid pace than normal without generating any kind of substantial increase in wage pressures. |
That suggests the economy has lost some of its steam. |
The auction came off pretty much as advertised -- it was good and strong. |
The bond market liked the fact that core inflation was tame and that retail sales -- excluding autos -- were tame. |
The fact that he didn't suggest any time frame for a pause is going to leave rates biased slightly higher. People still think a yield near 4.7% on the long end is a pretty good deal. |
The market is just seeing it for what it is. |