28 ordspråk av Marc Levesque
Marc Levesque
As a result, net exports contributed positively to the accounting of GDP growth in November.
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Aside from a few small snippets, Mr. Dodge could have transmitted exactly the same message by stating that 'nothing of substance has changed since the (Monetary Policy Report) Update', and leaving it at that.
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Currently, the Canadian dollar has been on a tear, an absolute tear. It's been massively outperforming other currencies.
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Dodge said nothing new that he had not already said last week, no surprise there.
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I don't know anybody out there who is not expecting the Bank of Canada to hike 25 basis points next week.
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I don't think they want to commit to any future rate hikes in case things start to sour. They're just leaving all the doors open.
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If we end up with a majority government you could see a bit of a rally in the currency but it would be short-lived. Canada's economy is comfortably in surplus and that backdrop isn't going to change, no matter who wins.
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In our view, there is still is every reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to nudge its rate higher, and we are not changing our call for a four per cent (overnight) rate by April.
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It'll be a pretty big increase. It means a lot for consumers and their pocketbooks, obviously - it's going to squeeze their spending power.
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Most importantly, the Bank of Canada is not giving the impression that it has much of an appetite for further rate hikes beyond the 4 percent level.
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Real exports are poised to take a bite out of Canada's growth performance for the first quarter as a whole.
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So exports actually contributed to net GDP growth in November.
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That's not suggesting to me that he sees himself with having a whole battery of rate hikes going forward. I would not be surprised at all to see them go one more time and then pause.
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The backdrop for consumer spending remains robust.
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The Bank of Canada cannot afford to be complacent if it wants to keep inflation in check over its 18-24 month time horizon ... Look for the overnight rate to peak at 4 percent.
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