53 ordspråk av Maureen Allyn

Maureen Allyn

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I think we're going to have to begin to believe that we're not in an inflationary environment. Sooner or later it's going to sink in.

I thought the first six months of the year would be a white-knuckle ride. But monetary policy is as effective as ever. That money takes time to get in there, but I think it will stabilize things. We shouldn't expect anything to happen until July at earliest, though, and we'll have a few more months of holding our breath here.

I'm surprised we're seeing this little amount of [weekly claims] because we keep hearing the announcements. There have to be more layoffs in the pipeline.

If you can lay off all those people at GM and still have 66,000 new jobs created last month, that's really pretty strong.

It certainly looks like [new claims] have peaked. You're looking at several weeks where they've come off the peak they hit after Sept. 11.

It was just the sheer demand of people wanting stuff and the demand of supplying it.

It's not a dramatic fallout, and I don't see any evidence of panic. It's much more of a gradual adjustment; people have to diversify a little more. It just slows things down a little bit.

It's not really a surprise.

Just as a warning: People better start bracing for higher oil prices later in the year.

People may not be feeling all that good, but they are trying to cheer themselves up. They're not constrained yet, but I do think it is going to set in. The bear market has taken a big, big bite out of wealth, and history tells us when that happens people do sort of cut back.

Private sector credit from 1999 through the first half of 2001 was adding $1.2 trillion per year. It was the mother of all credit expansions.

Realistically, they've done a lot already. The economy may be sleepy, but you don't need to hit it with everything you've got.

So far, layoffs have been bad, but the job market has held up pretty darn well. If companies really get the axe out more than they have, that sets a bad dynamic in motion. That's what's got to give [Federal Reserve Chairman] Alan Greenspan nightmares.

That's all got to be cleaned up. The stock market's going to struggle until that happens, and the economy at large will feel like it's moving through molasses, even though it will be moving forward.

That's why [Fed Chairman] Alan Greenspan was so desperate to get rates down - he wanted to make it easier to get through this. The Fed won't be raising rates any time this year; I don't care what the economy does.

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